NFL and college point spreads
Line Desk
The model's number for every game, set against the market's, and priced with how games actually end. Every betting rule here was tested on every result since 2004.
What's on the desk
Every NFL and FBS game
The model's own number and its blend with the market for each game, refreshed every Monday from that morning's lines.
Expected value at the posted price
A bet at 3% or more expected value, a lean at 1 to 3%, with a suggested stake for bets.
Price any number you find
Enter a book's line and price to see cover, push and lose odds, including what each half point on 3 and 7 is worth.
Graded as games finish
Every bet and lean at the number it was posted, and every game's model line against the final score, updated after each slate.
How it works
Ratings from play-by-play
Opponent-adjusted offense and defense ratings from decades of play-by-play, with quarterback adjustments in the NFL and conference-level shrinkage in college.
Blended with the market
The final number is the market line plus a measured share of the model's disagreement. In college that share is largest against early-week lines.
Priced on key numbers
Final margins come from distributions fit to real results, so pushes on 3 and 7 and the value of each half point are explicit.
Pro
The full desk: both leagues, every week.
Monthly or annual. Cancel any time and keep access through the period you paid for.